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Is the Price of Home Heating Oil Going Down?

August 11, 2023

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Homeowners today often find themselves wondering, is the price of home heating oil going down? With so many other prices going up, it’s no wonder you want to save where you can! Planning your winter heating bills ahead of time is also vital for many homeowners.

The price of home heating oil can be influenced by various factors. These include global oil prices, supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and weather conditions. However, many sources state that home heating oil prices have been slowly dropping since their peak just a few years ago.

If you’re still wondering, is the price of home heating oil going down, keep reading! Pricing websites can give you current prices in real time. Some information about the market and industry can also help you know what to expect!

Additionally, if you’re worried about heating and cooling costs, contact an HVAC repair contractor near you. They can check your property’s furnace and air conditioner systems and note needed repairs. Cleaning and other maintenance can also ensure they’re operating as efficiently as possible.

is the price of home heating oil going down

Is the Price of Home Heating Oil Going Down?

To understand what you might expect with home heating oil prices, first note what affects those prices:

Crude Oil Prices

Crude oil is a major component in the production of heating oil. Fluctuations in global crude oil prices have a significant impact on the cost of producing heating oil. To know more about what you might expect with heating prices, keep an eye on crude oil! Gas prices at your local station can also alert you to expected heating oil prices.

Supply and Demand

Like any commodity, the balance between supply and demand plays a crucial role in determining the price. If demand for heating oil exceeds supply, prices tend to rise, and vice versa. As an example, during the COVID-19 pandemic, more people began working from home. This reduced demand for gasoline and, in turn, crude oil.

During that time, gas and oil prices dropped accordingly. In the same way, demand for heating oil affects its price. If more homeowners decide on oil-based heating, this increases demand and oil prices.

Winter months typically see higher demand for heating oil. The colder the winter, the more demand for heating oil! This also drives prices up during that period. Conversely, warmer seasons may lead to lower demand and potentially lower prices.

Global Events and Geopolitics

Political instability in oil-producing regions, conflicts, sanctions, and other geopolitical events can disrupt oil supply. This can lead to price fluctuations. Also, these events can affect transportation in the oil industry. Increased tariffs and other costs for suppliers can mean higher prices for the consumer!

Refining and Distribution Costs

The cost of refining crude oil into heating oil and distributing it to consumers influences prices. Changes in refining capacity, transportation costs, and storage costs impact the final price. For example, when labor costs go up, refineries often pass that cost onto the consumer. In turn, your heating oil costs can also increase.


The level of heating oil stored in reserves can affect prices. Lower inventories can lead to price increases, while higher inventories can help stabilize prices. The more oil that distributors have on hand, the more likely they are to decrease prices! Rather than continuing to pay storage costs, they might simply reduce prices to sell that excess inventory.

Regulations and Policies

Government regulations, taxes, and policies related to energy production, distribution, and consumption influence oil costs. For instance, you might find that heating oil itself is the same price. However, if your state raises oil taxes, you’ll pay more for the oil overall.  

Alternative Energy Sources

The availability and competitiveness of alternative energy sources, such as natural gas or renewable energy, influences demand for heating oil. This then affects its price.

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What Month Is Heating Oil the Cheapest?

As with any product, heating oil is typically cheapest when the fewest people are buying it! In turn, you might find that heating oil is cheaper between April and September, when demand is low. Also, some suppliers might purposely raise their prices in fall and winter, when demand is high.

If you’re thinking of taking delivery of heating oil in the off-season, ensure you can store it safely. Have your tanks and other equipment inspected regularly, preferably before you order added supplies. Never store oil in any receptacle not designed for this material specifically. Certain plastics can degrade, creating the risk of leaks and other issues.

What Is the Oil Price Forecast for 2023?

Unfortunately, some agencies are predicting increases in oil prices for 2023 due to demand outpacing supplies. Some economists predicted falling prices in the beginning of 2023, but many are now adjusting their outlook.

Of course, there is no way of predicting with certainty oil prices for 2023 and beyond. Increased demand in China and other countries might drive oil prices up even higher. On the other hand, more electric vehicles on the market and less consumer travel can decrease demand. In turn, prices might fall.

Is Oil a Good Way to Heat Your Home?

Oil offers pros and cons like any other heating method! Note a few of those here so you can decide if it’s the right choice for your home’s heating needs:

  • Oil heating systems can provide consistent and efficient heating, particularly in colder climates. They can generate a high level of warmth, making them suitable for homes in areas with harsh winters.
  • If you have an on-site oil tank, you're not dependent on a centralized supply, which can be especially helpful in rural areas or during supply disruptions.
  • The price of heating oil can be volatile, as it's influenced by global oil markets. This can lead to unpredictable and potentially high heating costs during periods of price spikes.
  • Burning heating oil releases greenhouse gases and other pollutants into the atmosphere, contributing to air pollution and climate change.
  • Oil heating systems require regular maintenance to ensure they operate efficiently and safely. This includes cleaning, filter changes, and periodic inspections.

A Word From Our Team

Kingwood AC Repair Pros is happy to explain, is the price of home heating oil going down? Hopefully we’ve given you some good information to consider. If you’re in the area, you can also call our Kingwood AC repair contractors. We offer expert services for HVAC appliances, backed by a full warranty. To find out more, call us now!

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